Weve been here before -- declaring NATO dead or dying. Recently, U.S. Republican Senator Mike Lee posted on X, saying: Its time to leave NATO and the UN. Elon Musk, the worlds richest man and a close ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, responded simply: I agree.

While officials in Brussels and elsewhere note that Musk often shares political opinions on his platform, X, without necessarily shaping U.S. policy, some observers acknowledge his access to Trump and his informalinfluencein certain conservative circles in Washington, D.C.

Still, NATO officials at their Brussels headquarters have remained surprisingly calm so far. Their answer to whether the alliances demise is imminent is still a resounding No for two reasons: the gap between rhetoric and action; and the difference between NATO allies and NATO aspirants notably Ukraine.

U.S. Wants Greater Defense Spending

Take the first reason. As recently as last week, Trump reaffirmed his commitment to NATOs mutual defense clause, Article 5, inremarksalongside U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

That stance was reiterated multiple times -- both publicly and privately -- by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels in February.

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While he firmly insisted thatEuropean alliesmust significantly increase their defense spending, everyone I spoke to described the discussions as constructive.

He never left the room, listened, asked questions, and took notes -- not the behavior of an ally about to quit, one NATO ambassador told me.

And in that vein, NATO diplomats continue to navigate the constant speculation. We need to decipher what it all means, said one senior official. But weve also learned that we should ignore the noise and look at actions. Its a sort of strategic patience we must practice.

Ukraine's Uncertain NATO Path

Ukraine, however, is a different matter. The Ukraine track has changed, but not the NATO track. Theyve been pretty tough on Ukraine but remain committed to NATO, one alliance ambassador observed. The shift in tone toward Volodymyr Zelenskyy is one clear example, but Britains new role in coordinating arms deliveries to Ukraine is another indicator.

Its also evident thatUkraine wont be joining NATOanytime soon -- though, in truth, it was the Biden administration that blocked Kyivs membership at recent NATO summits, much to the quiet relief of some Western European countries. The new U.S. administration is just more blunt about it.

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What countries on NATOs eastern flank are now asking is whether American troops will remain stationed there. For now, the answer is yes, though many acknowledge concerns about an impending review of U.S. troop levels in Europe.

But if these countries are attacked by Russia, will U.S. forces come to their aid? The prevailing belief is that they will. but Article 5 of the NATO treaty depends on both allies and adversaries believing it will hold.

As one Eastern European official put it: Its like Schroedingers cat -- it exists in both states, alive and dead, until the box is opened. In NATOs case, until Article 5 is actually tested, we wont really know.